Fight OddsPrime Picks: UFC Nashville ‘Lewis vs. Teixeira’
The Ultimate Fighting Championship kicks off the
second half of its 2025 schedule this Saturday at Bridgestone Arena
in Nashville, Tennessee with a fiery little card that might not
blow anyone’s hair back but should provide some destructive
entertainment. Eager to break the heavyweight division’s long
decision streak, the promotion stacks up three fights between big
men that are all primed to go out with a bang. Some of the lines
are bananas, with two favorites at -1000 or above and a few others
eclipsing -500. There’s still money to be made with the
UFC on ESPN 70 edition of Prime Picks, as stoppages represent
the name of our game.
The streak of heavyweight decisions ends with this event. For over 100 days, no big man in the Octagon has finished his opponent. It might end with the Kennedy Nzechukwu-Valter Walker slugfest that we are skipping entirely, but it will certainly come to a decided conclusion in the main attraction. Despite keeping a dozen defeats on his ledger, most of them via strikes, Lewis tends to hear the final bell only in a bizarre outing—like his flying knee-palooza against Ilir Latifi or when Jailton Almeida sat on his chest for much of their encounter. The blueprint to dispatch the 40-year-old is still not the easiest to follow, and where Tallison Teixeira will have the best chance is punching his way through the defense to bust Lewis in the chops. If he stands in one place for too long or decides it is in his best interest to swang and bang with the UFC’s all-time knockout leader, he will end up as little more than a number.
Teixeira would be far from the first skyscraping foe with which
Lewis has tangled, and giving up five or so inches in height is old
hat for “The Black Beast.” The Texan still has a great way of
exploding his way into contact, usually behind one of his flying
bungalows, to paraphrase Quinton
Jackson. There is little setup or jab-to-entry for the
hard-swinging Lewis, who tends to commit fully when seeing an
opening and otherwise has no interest in point fighting. If the
Brazilian can somehow keep Lewis at the end of his superior range
for 25 minutes, he can skate by the toughest test in his career.
That is not his game, however, as he would vastly prefer bull
rushing his foe. Even with Lewis advancing in age and 15 years his
opponent’s senior, if you get in the pocket and trade with him, it
may be 50-50 that your head isn’t removed from your shoulders. This
makes Lewis an exceedingly live proposition, especially when
drilling down to what should reasonably be his only path to
victory.
How does one take a -435 betting line and transform that push for that athlete into one at even money? Props. With the quick click of a button, that -435 for Bonfim to defeat Stephen Thompson plummets to -110 under the expectation that the Brazilian will put Thompson away. This is not the same Thompson who narrowly missed earning the welterweight throne or even the “Wonderboy” that took chunks out of Geoff Neal, Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland. This is the one whose chin may not be what it once was, coupled with maneuverability and recoverability that cannot sustain itself at the tender age of 42. What makes matters worse for Thompson is that most of his defensive prowess has slipped just enough that top-tier athletes can reach him and hurt him. He may be able to still beat a name or two in the Top 10, but the hard-charging “Marretinha” is not who he should be facing now.
Like the main event, the age gap between combatants is a remarkable 15 years. The promotion regularly writes on broadcasts that younger fighters win at a disproportionate rate with those disparities, and this should be something of the sort. One of the only ways it could fall apart for Bonfim is if he tries to get into a low-paced kickboxing match with the karateka. If he thinks he can outpotshot “Wonderboy,” he has another thing coming. Should his hubris be great enough that he wishes to beat Thompson at his own game, this bet is lost. Otherwise, watch for Bonfim to barrel towards the former title challenger, get hold of him and not let him go until the referee calls it off. MMA is historically unkind to the elderly.
Surprisingly, this pairing is Tafa dropping down in weight to come to blows with light heavyweight George Tokkos. The 35-year-old from Britain has yet to find his footing in the Octagon, and getting his face smushed by Oumar Sy did not help matters. It is any guess how Tafa's ferocity will show up when having to shed some 30-odd pounds, but his power should remain the same. With Tokkos’ history of getting clubbed by smaller fighters than the Kiwi? Take the 100% knockout rate of Tafa and ride that if one wishes to roll the dice on a haymaker's delight slopfest.
To be clear, low-level UFC matches are not always desirable from betting perspectives. The trick is to find when bettors do not appear to be reading the tea leaves as they are. Following Occam’s razor, Tafa may not be a .500 UFC fighter, but he throws with everything he has for about four minutes. Meanwhile, Tokkos had his jaw jacked by Mingyang Zhang just a few years ago, and the svelte but still massive Tafa can do the same but even faster. Given that Tafa has not outright gotten caught with something, the “The Juggernaut” can rest on his slightly less thick neck and wide chin to take what Tokkos gives to him and dole it out worse.
Ahead of this preliminary welterweight pairing, onlookers have marveled that the youthfully exuberant Matthews will only clock in six years the junior of Chidi Njokuani. “The Celtic Kid” has been a fixture of that division for over a decade now, which makes his slow but methodical development interesting to track. Outside of a head-scratcher against the gangly Matthew Semelsberger, the only few to surpass the Aussie since the coronavirus pandemic are Sean Brady and Michael Morales. The others to test him in what has become a less-than-active schedule have gotten run over by the underrated 30-year-old. He will be the underdog to power-punching Njokuani, but heavy hitters have not been where Matthews can struggle.
The home-grown UFC talent has largely made his bones on the mat, not needing a large number of takedowns to get where he wants. The Aussie can hang on the feet against all but the stiffest of tests, getting by with a reliable-enough work rate and a fairly stout defensive strategy. Matthews rarely throws himself out of balance or overcommits to his offense, which has held him back in a few performances where he likely could have pushed the pace harder to elicit a stoppage. It is the grappling where Matthews should have the upper hand. Njokuani will not threaten with a guillotine when hitting his back or toss his long legs up for a triangle like many others with his same physical tools. The lone submission for “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” came in 2010, and it has been power since then. Matthews easily has the ability and cardio to steal away two rounds and keep the third close to get through this one with the minor upset.
Derrick Lewis Wins by TKO/KO (+275)
The streak of heavyweight decisions ends with this event. For over 100 days, no big man in the Octagon has finished his opponent. It might end with the Kennedy Nzechukwu-Valter Walker slugfest that we are skipping entirely, but it will certainly come to a decided conclusion in the main attraction. Despite keeping a dozen defeats on his ledger, most of them via strikes, Lewis tends to hear the final bell only in a bizarre outing—like his flying knee-palooza against Ilir Latifi or when Jailton Almeida sat on his chest for much of their encounter. The blueprint to dispatch the 40-year-old is still not the easiest to follow, and where Tallison Teixeira will have the best chance is punching his way through the defense to bust Lewis in the chops. If he stands in one place for too long or decides it is in his best interest to swang and bang with the UFC’s all-time knockout leader, he will end up as little more than a number.
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Gabriel Bonfim Wins Inside Distance (-110)
How does one take a -435 betting line and transform that push for that athlete into one at even money? Props. With the quick click of a button, that -435 for Bonfim to defeat Stephen Thompson plummets to -110 under the expectation that the Brazilian will put Thompson away. This is not the same Thompson who narrowly missed earning the welterweight throne or even the “Wonderboy” that took chunks out of Geoff Neal, Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland. This is the one whose chin may not be what it once was, coupled with maneuverability and recoverability that cannot sustain itself at the tender age of 42. What makes matters worse for Thompson is that most of his defensive prowess has slipped just enough that top-tier athletes can reach him and hurt him. He may be able to still beat a name or two in the Top 10, but the hard-charging “Marretinha” is not who he should be facing now.
Like the main event, the age gap between combatants is a remarkable 15 years. The promotion regularly writes on broadcasts that younger fighters win at a disproportionate rate with those disparities, and this should be something of the sort. One of the only ways it could fall apart for Bonfim is if he tries to get into a low-paced kickboxing match with the karateka. If he thinks he can outpotshot “Wonderboy,” he has another thing coming. Should his hubris be great enough that he wishes to beat Thompson at his own game, this bet is lost. Otherwise, watch for Bonfim to barrel towards the former title challenger, get hold of him and not let him go until the referee calls it off. MMA is historically unkind to the elderly.
Justin Tafa Wins by TKO/KO (-110)
Surprisingly, this pairing is Tafa dropping down in weight to come to blows with light heavyweight George Tokkos. The 35-year-old from Britain has yet to find his footing in the Octagon, and getting his face smushed by Oumar Sy did not help matters. It is any guess how Tafa's ferocity will show up when having to shed some 30-odd pounds, but his power should remain the same. With Tokkos’ history of getting clubbed by smaller fighters than the Kiwi? Take the 100% knockout rate of Tafa and ride that if one wishes to roll the dice on a haymaker's delight slopfest.
To be clear, low-level UFC matches are not always desirable from betting perspectives. The trick is to find when bettors do not appear to be reading the tea leaves as they are. Following Occam’s razor, Tafa may not be a .500 UFC fighter, but he throws with everything he has for about four minutes. Meanwhile, Tokkos had his jaw jacked by Mingyang Zhang just a few years ago, and the svelte but still massive Tafa can do the same but even faster. Given that Tafa has not outright gotten caught with something, the “The Juggernaut” can rest on his slightly less thick neck and wide chin to take what Tokkos gives to him and dole it out worse.
Jake Matthews (+133)
Ahead of this preliminary welterweight pairing, onlookers have marveled that the youthfully exuberant Matthews will only clock in six years the junior of Chidi Njokuani. “The Celtic Kid” has been a fixture of that division for over a decade now, which makes his slow but methodical development interesting to track. Outside of a head-scratcher against the gangly Matthew Semelsberger, the only few to surpass the Aussie since the coronavirus pandemic are Sean Brady and Michael Morales. The others to test him in what has become a less-than-active schedule have gotten run over by the underrated 30-year-old. He will be the underdog to power-punching Njokuani, but heavy hitters have not been where Matthews can struggle.
The home-grown UFC talent has largely made his bones on the mat, not needing a large number of takedowns to get where he wants. The Aussie can hang on the feet against all but the stiffest of tests, getting by with a reliable-enough work rate and a fairly stout defensive strategy. Matthews rarely throws himself out of balance or overcommits to his offense, which has held him back in a few performances where he likely could have pushed the pace harder to elicit a stoppage. It is the grappling where Matthews should have the upper hand. Njokuani will not threaten with a guillotine when hitting his back or toss his long legs up for a triangle like many others with his same physical tools. The lone submission for “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” came in 2010, and it has been power since then. Matthews easily has the ability and cardio to steal away two rounds and keep the third close to get through this one with the minor upset.
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